BYU tries to flee, the Mountain West sets Fire to the Exits
The high stakes game being played by Craig Thompson, Tom Holmoe, Bronco Mendenhall, and company...
What's the Endgame?
Two-fold: Keep BYU from leaving the conference, Achieve automatic qualifier status within the BCS
BYU's attempt to leave has hastened the Mountain West's BCS efforts.
The problem: in attempting to burn BYU's exit roads, have they also scorched their own long-term goals?
Fresno State and Nevada offer nothing toward the BCS
The MWC brought the Bulldogs and Wolf Pack on board to make the WAC an untenable landing spot for BYU's non-football sports.
From a BCS statistical standpoint, Fresno St. and Nevada are the perfect picture of mediocrity. The Mountain West's BCS profile is not raised one iota with them on board.
But now that Craig Thompson has committed to them, he has 11 teams for the 2011 season. He seems to believe he has to get to 12 to finish off the WAC and prove to BYU that there is a reason to stick around. Weekend rumors persist that Utah State could be that 12th team, despite initial rejection.
Does BYU want to share conference ties in the MWC with Utah State?
The Cougars have always said the right things when it comes to the Aggies but their scheduling practices suggest that they don't believe Utah State is, or should be, on their level. BYU has done its best in recent years to get better than a "home and home" in football and basketball with USU whenever it can. They would have made it work in the WAC as long as BYU football was independent but:
Thompson's move to include Utah State in the Mountain West may only strengthen BYU's resolve to leave.
There's also the matter of what do with 12 teams?
The only reason for the Mountain West to stage a conference title game is if an automatic BCS berth comes along with it.
The MWC would never want to risk derailing a BCS payday by having its top team upset in the conference title game. The title game would not generate enough money to make up for the loss of the BCS game.
There's also the logistical problem of where to stage that game. Las Vegas would make the most sense except, with current bowl alignments, one of those two teams would be virtually guaranteed to be playing again in that same venue a couple weeks later.
Which brings us back to the top.
Thompson's 12 team Mountain West with a conference title game is not going to be guaranteed a BCS slot. That's why you're hearing about meetings with Conference USA that involve a joint title game that would lead to an automatic BCS berth.
But why would the current AQ conferences want to bring CUSA into the fold? No team in that conference has gone undefeated in the BCS era.
That's what Thompson has to figure out between now and whenever BYU makes its final decision. He has to come up with a solution that not only benefits the Mountain West, but creates an additional financial benefit for the 6 conferences that already have automatic inclusion.
Don't forget that taking a shank to the WAC isn't good enough. He'll have 12 mouths to feed instead of 9. Where's the extra money going to come from to make 1/12th of the pie more valuable than 1/9th?
Good luck with that.
BYU's Problem
They've been hammered by their supporters since Utah's Pac-10 announcement. The Cougars seem compelled to come up with an answer to the Utes' big move. They can't afford to fall behind from an economic or image standpoint.
Football independence is logical but without a soft landing spot for the rest of their sports, they'd be trading one set of headaches for another.
BYU knows it still has to do something as tangible proof to recruits that it's "different."
That's why Notre Dame still clings to its independent status. Financially, they're now no better off than SEC or Big Ten schools from a television money standpoint.
But if the Fighting Irish finally give in and join the Big Ten, they're officially no different or better than Northwestern.
Sure, they can point to the trophies collecting dust in the case. But there isn't a kid in the fertile recruiting grounds of the South who is going to care one way or the other. To them, Lou Holtz is that goofy, old man on ESPN. Knute Rockne? Please.
That's why independence still matters and why BYU seeks some of the same elixir.
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